The unpredictability of the NCAA baseball bracket

As the NCAA Baseball Tournament looms, the only certainty about this year’s bracket is its unpredictability. With the regular season nearing its close and conference tournaments just around the corner, the projected field of 64 is shaping up to be one of the most volatile in recent memory.

What’s typically a field dominated by predictable SEC powerhouses and perennial West Coast contenders has been shaken up by surprise teams crashing the top 8 in national power rankings—and others slipping far below expectations.

Indiana State and UC Irvine—two mid-major programs that weren’t even on the radar for most preseason Top 25s—have launched themselves into hosting conversations and are making serious noise. Indiana State boasts a dominant 38-10 record, fueled by one of the nation’s best pitching staffs and a relentless approach at the plate. Meanwhile, UC Irvine’s resume includes key wins over Pac-12 opponents and a sparkling RPI.

Another unexpected riser is Coastal Carolina, back to its 2016 Cinderella vibes. The Chanticleers have posted huge wins over SEC and ACC teams, and their offensive metrics—top 5 in runs per game and slugging—put them in the conversation for a Top 8 national seed.

While the rise of mid-majors is exciting, it’s come at the expense of several traditional powers. Florida, a College World Series finalist in 2023 and 2024, has battled inconsistency and is now fighting just to get into the field. Ole Miss and South Carolina are also firmly on the bubble, needing deep runs in the SEC Tournament to have a shot at an at-large bid.

Even teams with solid records like North Carolina and UCLA are facing uncertainty, as a lack of signature wins or faltering down the stretch could push them into dangerous territory come Selection Monday.

The SEC still leads the way in terms of potential hosts, but the order isn’t what most expected. Texas A&M and Georgia have emerged as the league’s best, with consistent series wins and top-10 RPI marks. Defending champ Tennessee is in the mix, but no longer the top dog. Meanwhile, LSU and Arkansas have hovered around the top 15 but haven’t fully asserted themselves as Omaha locks yet.

What makes this even more unpredictable is the chaos brewing at the middle of the SEC pack—teams like Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Alabama have all shown flashes but remain inconsistent, capable of winning a regional—or missing the tournament entirely.

With less than two weeks until the NCAA selection show, the path to Omaha looks murky. Hosting slots are still up for grabs, and the final conference tournament results could drastically swing the bracket. A few key storylines to watch:

• Will a mid-major crash the Top 8 and host a Super Regional?

• Can a bubble team like Florida or Ole Miss find late momentum?

• Which SEC or ACC powerhouse will suffer an early postseason exit?

One thing’s for sure: this bracket won’t follow a script. From outlier hosts to unpredictable regionals, 2025 is shaping up to be a year of chaos—and fans should buckle up for a wild ride to Omaha.